Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 heralded a new era in US trade policy, characterised by an unprecedented expansion of tariffs. Even during his first term in office, President Trump increasingly relied on tariffs as a means of achieving his economic policy goals. However, the measures now announced represent a significant escalation of this strategy and raise far-reaching questions regarding their motives, consequences and the global response.

Background and reasons for the current US tariff policy

The current tariff policy of the United States under President Trump is characterised by a number of declared goals and convictions. A central concern is to strengthen the national and economic security of the USA and improve its competitive position. President Trump argues that unfair trade practices by other countries and a chronic trade deficit have weakened the American economy and undermined domestic manufacturing. Another key motive is to reduce the USA’s significant trade deficit, which exceeded USD 1.2 trillion in goods trade in 2024, which the government considers to be an unsustainable crisis. The tariffs are intended to remedy this by making imports more expensive and thus boosting demand for domestic products.

The idea of „reciprocity“ also plays a crucial role, with President Trump demanding that other countries treat the United States in trade in the same way that the US treats them. He argues that many trading partners impose significantly higher tariffs on US goods than the US does on their imports. In addition, the tariffs are also linked to other political goals, including curbing the illegal drug trade and stepping up immigration enforcement.

The most important elements of current US customs policy

The current US tariff policy comprises several key elements. A central component is a universal base tariff of 10 percent on all imports from most countries, which came into force on 5 April 2025. In addition, higher „reciprocal“ tariffs were imposed on goods from countries and regions with significant trade deficits, reaching up to 50 percent, which came into force on 9 April 2025. In addition, country-specific tariffs on important trading partners such as China, Canada and Mexico remain in place, with the previously imposed tariffs on Chinese goods being further increased by the new measures. Sector-specific tariffs, such as the previously introduced tariffs on steel and aluminium of 25%, remained in place. In addition, a new 25% tariff on imported cars and certain car parts was announced, which came into force on 3 April 2025.

However, there are also exemptions from the new tariffs, including goods already subject to existing Section 232 tariffs, certain critical raw materials, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber, as well as energy products and certain minerals not available in the US. The tariffs affect a wide range of economic sectors, including electronics, automotive, apparel and footwear, and consumer goods. It is noteworthy that while Canada and Mexico are exempt from the new „reciprocal“ tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods, they continue to face existing tariffs on non-compliant goods and in the automotive sector.

Economic impact on the USA

The introduction of the new tariffs is expected to have a significant economic impact on the United States. Economists warn of a rise in consumer prices, as the tariffs will increase the cost of imported goods, which will have to be borne by American companies and ultimately by consumers. This could lead to a general increase in the price of goods, as domestic producers could also increase their prices due to reduced competition. The impact on specific industries will vary. While some domestic producers that compete with imports could benefit from the tariffs, companies that rely on imported primary products will face higher costs. There are pessimistic forecasts with regard to gross domestic product and employment.

Several studies indicate that the tariffs could have a negative impact on US GDP and lead to a decline in economic growth. The impact on the labour market is also viewed critically, as the negative consequences for other sectors suffering from higher costs or affected by foreign retaliation could outweigh the potential gains. It is expected that the tariffs will lead to a reduction in disposable household income, whereby lower-income households in particular could be disproportionately affected. On the other hand, the tariffs are expected to lead to an increase in government revenue, which could theoretically be used to finance other government spending or reduce government debt.

Global economic impact and responses

The US tariffs not only have an impact on the domestic economy, but also have global economic consequences and reactions. In response to the US tariffs, retaliatory measures have already been taken by other countries. China, for example, has announced that it will impose tariffs on US products, currently amounting to 125%. The European Union has also already announced countermeasures. This escalation could lead to a trade war, which would further burden the global economy and lead to a general increase in trade costs. Tariffs are expected to lead to shifts in global trade patterns, with countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the US market and instead intensify their trade relations with other partners.

The impact on global economic growth is expected to be negative, as the uncertainty created by US trade policy could slow down investment and reduce consumer spending. Some countries are not reacting to the US tariffs with retaliatory measures, but are trying to achieve better conditions through negotiations or to support their domestic industries. Taiwan, for example, has announced a five-step strategy that includes negotiations with the US, support for affected industries and long-term economic development plans, but without relying on counter-tariffs.

US customs policy towards Germany and the EU

The current US customs policy towards Germany and the European Union is characterised by a series of measures. Since 5 April 2025, a flat tariff rate of 10% has applied to all imports into the USA. In addition, country-specific tariffs should come into force from 9 April 2025, including a rate of 20% for imports from the EU. However, these planned increased tariffs for the EU have been suspended for 90 days; during this „tariff pause“, the universal tariff rate of 10% will continue to apply. Even before these blanket tariffs, certain sectors were already affected by special tariffs, with tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium products in place since 12 March 2025. Special tariffs of 25% have also been imposed on cars and car parts since 3 April or 3 May 2025 at the latest. The European Union has responded to the US tariff policy by announcing counter-tariffs on selected US products, but these measures have also been suspended for 90 days to allow for negotiations with the US government. A further escalation of trade policy can be seen in the increase in US tariffs on imports from China to 145%.

Expert analysis and outlook

The current US tariff policy under President Trump has provoked controversial reactions among experts. Many economists and trade experts are expressing scepticism about the economic logic and potential consequences of these measures. The calculation of the „reciprocal“ tariffs has been particularly criticised, as the formula used by the Trump administration is seen as flawed and has no sound economic basis. The calculation is based on a country’s trade deficit and imports, which is not an appropriate measure of unfair trade practices. It is feared that the high tariffs could lead to trade diversion, with countries subject to US tariffs seeking to direct their exports to other markets instead.

The tariffs could also lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, with companies being forced to relocate their production sites to avoid the higher import costs to the US. The political implications of US tariff policy are also significant, as the measures have led to tensions with key trading partners and could strain international relations. There is also political opposition to the tariffs within the US, including within Republican ranks, and some members of Congress are seeking to restore greater restrictions on the President’s trade policy powers.

Challenges and opportunities of the current US customs policy

The current escalation of US tariff policy under President Trump poses a significant challenge for the global economy. The introduction of comprehensive tariffs harbours significant risks, including rising consumer prices in the US, a possible slowdown in economic growth and tense international trade relations due to retaliatory measures. From the Trump administration’s perspective, the tariffs could potentially help boost domestic production in certain sectors and encourage other countries to trade more fairly. However, the economic effectiveness of these measures and the methodology used to calculate the tariffs are highly controversial among experts.

The long-term effects of the new US tariff policy are currently still uncertain and will largely depend on how other countries react, whether there is further escalation in the trade war and how global supply chains adapt to the changed conditions. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy could have a negative impact on investment and economic growth worldwide, and it remains to be seen whether the objectives pursued with this policy can be achieved or whether the negative economic consequences will outweigh the positive ones. The future of global trade and the role of the United States in it will be significantly characterised by the further development of this customs policy in the coming years.

We will explain in individual blog contributions how SMEs in Germany can react with the help of short-term and medium-term measures.

ADCONIA – Out of the ordinary.

Consulting for procurement, supply and value chain with a focus on cost management, digitalisation, organisational development and sustainability.